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P first and S third gives 41 words, and nearly forty percent of them put A in the box between.
A leads at about thirty nine percent, O at twenty four, I at seventeen and E at twelve.
The A and O branches together account for almost two thirds of the group, so a first guess that skips both is usually wasted.
PASTE, PASTA, PASTY and PASTS all run PAST and differ only in the last box, which makes the A branch quick to finish once you are inside it.
POSED, POSES and POSER do the same on the O branch, so both of the big branches reward a second guess more than a first.
PESKY, PESOS and PESTS cover the E branch, and PISTE holds most of what the I branch has to offer.
None of them shares much with the PAST or POSE shapes beyond the opening letter, so they are guesses to hold in reserve rather than open with.
PASHA is the other one to know, since it drops the T that PASTE, PASTA and PASTY all share.
POSTS is the most common word here but its repeated S wastes a box. PASTE covers the larger branch with five distinct letters.
No. PAUSE puts U in the third box and S in the fourth. The S needs to sit one place earlier to qualify.
POSSE and PASSE both double the S across the third and fourth boxes, so a second S is a cheap test once the first one is confirmed.