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C first and D third covers 37 words, and one four letter opening accounts for a large share of them.
A leads at about forty one percent, O at thirty and E at nineteen, with Y picking up another five.
The A and O branches together hold almost three quarters of the group, so an opening guess that tests both vowels is doing real work.
CODES, CODED, CODEC, CODER and CODEX all run CODE and differ only in the last box, which is five of the eleven O branch words in a single shape.
CADET, CADRE, CADDY and CEDAR carry the A and E branches and share nothing with the CODE family beyond the opening C.
CIDER is the only I branch entry worth naming, and CYDER is its rarer spelling.
So once O is ruled out the group scatters, and a second guess should test A rather than another O word.
It covers the CODE shape, and since five words share that shape, landing it leaves only the last box open.
No. CHILD puts H in the second box and I in the third. The D lands last, two boxes later than this pattern needs.
Only the last box, and both are technical terms rather than everyday words. If the CODE shape lands but the ending stays open, CODES and CODED are the likelier finishes.